What is the current probability of success from Phase 1 to approval?

Overall Phase 1 to approval probability is approximately 7.9% across all therapeutic areas. Oncology is lower at 5.3%, while rare disease is higher at 17.2%. The steepest drop occurs at Phase 2 to Phase 3 transition (28.9% success rate), where most compounds fail on efficacy endpoints. Biomarker-selected trials show 15-20% higher success rates.